nnpNeurology, Neuropsychiatry, PsychosomaticsНеврология, нейропсихиатрия, психосоматика2074-27112310-1342"IMA-Press", LLC10.14412/2074-2711-2025-5-48-54nnp-2699Research ArticleORIGINAL INVESTIGATIONSОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ И МЕТОДИКИPredictors of one-year survival after ischaemic strokeПредикторы годовой выживаемости после ишемического инсультаhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7079-1018КуликоваС. П.KulikovaS. P.

Софья Петровна Куликова

614070, Пермь, ул. Студенческая, 38

Sofya Petrovna Kulikova

38, Studencheskaya St., Perm 614070

SPKulikova@hse.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0006-2811-823XПоляковаИ. Ю.PolyakovaI. Yu.

614070, Пермь, ул. Студенческая, 38

38, Studencheskaya St., Perm 614070

https://orcid.org/0009-0000-6380-4688КузьмичеваЕ. В.KuzmichevaE. V.

614070, Пермь, ул. Студенческая, 38

38, Studencheskaya St., Perm 614070

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6061-8118КулешА. А.KuleshA. A.

614990, Пермь, ул. Петропавловская, 26

614107, Пермь, ул. КИМ, 2

26, Petropavlovskaya St., Perm 614990

2, KIM St., Perm 614107

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5679-4100МехряковС. А.MekhryakovS. A.

614990, Пермь, ул. Петропавловская, 26

614107, Пермь, ул. КИМ, 2

26, Petropavlovskaya St., Perm 614990

2, KIM St., Perm 614107

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8991-0531КулешА. М.KuleshA. M.

614990, Пермь, ул. Петропавловская, 26

26, Petropavlovskaya St., Perm 614990

https://orcid.org/0009-0000-8975-7365КрапивинС. В.KrapivinS. V.

614990, Пермь, ул. Петропавловская, 26

26, Petropavlovskaya St., Perm 614990

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7536-2060КаракуловаЮ. В.KarakulovaYu. V.

614990, Пермь, ул. Петропавловская, 26

614107, Пермь, ул. КИМ, 2

26, Petropavlovskaya St., Perm 614990

2, KIM St., Perm 614107

ФГАОУ ВО «Национальный исследовательский университет “Высшая школа экономики”»РоссияNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsRussian FederationФГБОУ ВО «Пермский государственный медицинский университет им. акад. Е.А. Вагнера» Минздрава России; ГАУЗ Пермского края «Городская клиническая больница №4»РоссияAcad. E.A. Vagner Perm State Medical University, Ministry of Health of Russia; City Clinical Hospital FourRussian FederationФГБОУ ВО «Пермский государственный медицинский университет им. акад. Е.А. Вагнера» Минздрава РоссииРоссияAcad. E.A. Vagner Perm State Medical University, Ministry of Health of RussiaRussian Federation2025201020251754854Copyright © Kulikova S.P., Polyakova I.Y., Kuzmicheva E.V., Kulesh A.A., Mekhryakov S.A., Kulesh A.M., Krapivin S.V., Karakulova Y.V., 20252025Куликова С.П., Полякова И.Ю., Кузьмичева Е.В., Кулеш А.А., Мехряков С.А., Кулеш А.М., Крапивин С.В., Каракулова Ю.В.Kulikova S.P., Polyakova I.Y., Kuzmicheva E.V., Kulesh A.A., Mekhryakov S.A., Kulesh A.M., Krapivin S.V., Karakulova Y.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://nnp.ima-press.net/nnp/article/view/2699

Predicting the outcome of ischaemic stroke (IS) is a complex task, as mortality and disability depend on many factors, including age, gender, type and severity of stroke, and comorbidities. Survival rates also vary between countries depending on genetic characteristics and differences in the organisation of healthcare systems.

Objective

Objective: to search for predictors of one-year survival after IS in a sample of patients from the Perm region.

Material and methods

Material and methods. The study included 254 patients who had suffered an IS. Seventy-five parameters obtained during routine clinical examination were analysed, including information on the subtype and severity of the stroke, the size and location of the lesion, neurological disorders, comorbidities, and other factors. Relevant features were selected using the WEKA programme, and the selected features were used in a predictive model based on logistic regression.

Results

Results. The following factors have been identified as significant predictors of annual survival in patients who have undergone IS (the sign of the coefficient reflects the relative contribution of the factor to the model and its positive or negative effect): age (-0.02), degree of neurological deficit on the NIHSS scale at discharge (-0.06), haemoglobin level (0.01), infarction in the anterior choroidal artery basin (0.74), recurrent stroke within the following year (-0.02) and cardioembolic stroke subtype (-0.32). The accuracy of the logistic model was 84% with 10-fold cross-validation.

Conclusion

Conclusion. In the model predicting one-year survival after IS, other factors have been identified in addition to age, which is usually associated with a less favourable prognosis. Further multicentre studies are needed to confirm the reliability of the proposed model.

Прогнозирование исхода ишемического инсульта (ИИ) – сложная задача, так как смертность и инвалидизация зависят от множества факторов, включая возраст, пол, тип и тяжесть инсульта, а также сопутствующие заболевания. Уровень выживаемости также варьирует в разных странах в зависимости от генетических особенностей и различий в организации систем здравоохранения.

Целью данного исследования являлся поиск предикторов годовой выживаемости после ИИ на выборке из пациентов Пермского края.

Материал и методы

Материал и методы. В исследование вошли 254 пациента, перенесших ИИ. Анализировались 75 параметров, полученных в ходе рутинного клинического обследования и включающих информацию о подтипе и тяжести инсульта, размере и локализации поражения, возникших неврологических нарушениях, сопутствующих заболеваниях и других факторах. Выбор релевантных признаков выполнялся с применением программы WEKA, отобранные признаки были использованы в предсказательной модели на основе логистической регрессии.

Результаты

Результаты. В качестве значимых предикторов годовой выживаемости пациентов, перенесших ИИ, установлены (знак коэффициента отражает относительный вклад фактора в модель и его положительное или отрицательное влияние): возраст (-0,02), степень неврологического дефицита по шкале NIHSS при выписке (-0,06), уровень гемоглобина (0,01), инфаркт в бассейне передней хориоидальной артерии (0,74), повторный инсульт в течение следующего года (-0,02) и кардиоэмболический подтип инсульта (-0,32). Точность логистической модели составила 84% при 10-кратной перекрестной валидации.

Заключение

Заключение. В модели предсказания годовой выживаемости после ИИ, кроме возраста, который обычно ассоциируется с менее благоприятным прогнозом, выявлены другие факторы. Для подтверждения надежности предложенной модели необходимо проведение дальнейших многоцентровых исследований.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.